Final Update 21/06:

And there we have it, Johnson and Hunt through to the final two with plenty of rumours of Johnson throwing some of his supporters behind Hunt so that he doesn't have to face Gove.


Update 20/06:

Stewart out at the third yesterday and Javid falling today, we're down to the final three as they come to the last.  Johnson lengths ahead but will he be out raced by whichever of Gove or Hunt makes it over the final fence.

Update - 19/06:

Raab lost yesterday and is eliminated, with Stewart and Javid picking up enough support to make it through the round and into the debate.

Boris Johnson - 126
Jeremy Hunt - 46
Michael Gove - 41
Rory Stewart - 37
Sajid Javid - 33

Raab's voters are unlikely to go to Stewart, will split between Johnson, Hunt and Javid but Javid not getting enough to keep him safe today.  Still think Gove might do a deal with Hunt of Johnson for a decent Ministry.

Update - 14/06:

As predicted Matt Hancock is out before the second round.  It looked like he might throw his support to Javid but nothing has come out publicly yet.  If Stewart can't pick up some of his votes he'll be the next to pull out.

Update - 13/06:

First round results are in - McVey, Leadsom and Harper eliminated in the first round.  None of their votes will go to Stewart (19) so he's likely to drop out before the second round as in Hancock (20).  Javid on 23 will hope to pick up some so will probably stay in but Raab will hope to pick up the most.  You've got to assume that at 114 Johnson is going to get through to the membership vote, provided he doesn't say anything so controversial it kills him.

Gove might be a surprise drop out at, 37 he's probably at his limit of support.

The process of electing a new Conservative leader should be a short period of campaigning by the candidates followed by a vote by the MP’s.  The top two candidates will then go onto a ballot of the party members who will choose the new leader. Once the leader is selected I suppose they’ll have to go and see the Queen and then Arlene Foster before finally providing a specimen to the whips office.

So the next PM will be chosen by around 100,000 members, predominantly elderly, white, middle class people. Hurrah! For democracy.

That is the best current estimate, it could be a lot less than that as parties are not required to disclose their membership numbers and given the disenchantment reported during the council and European elections it may be that a significant number have not renewed their subscriptions in time to vote.

So May officially resigned on the 7th June, with the first MP ballot expected 13th June, Channel 4 debates on the 16th and final 2 known by the 20th.  Conservative members should of decided by the 22nd July.


Boris Johnson (114 first round votes)

Bookies favourite, the frequently enscandled former Mayor of London, whose bumbling, stage managed gaffe prone, scruffy halfwit routine is popular with the membership for reasons that evade me.  Whoever is running his campaign has him on an ultra short leash at the moment as he is practically in hiding. If he gets through the MP’s selection he’s PM.

Evens


Andrea Leadsom (11 first round votes - eliminated)

Last candidate to drop out last time to let Theresa May be anointed.  Was given high profile job in Theresa May’s Cabinet but resigned to make a principled stand in turquoise gel pen.  The principal appears to be that she wants to be PM. Non-sequiturially wants a “managed no deal”, you can only assume as she doesn’t really understand how that sounds but thinks it sounds good.

10/1


Michael Gove (37  first round votes)

Hypocritical cocaine taker Gove, happy to bar teachers from teaching for doing exactly what he did as a 30 year old grown up journalist.  Should stick to introducing Moschops on children's TV.

Following recent revelations 50/1


Sajid Javid (23  first round votes - eliminated 4th vote)

Serious bit...

I dislike the policies he’s supported in Government but whatever his qualifications and attributes I can’t help but think that the Institutionally Islamophobic Tory party is not ready for a leader who is the son of Pakistani Muslim immigrants.

Serious bit ends, back to mocking the Tories.

500/1


Jeremy Hunt (43 first round votes)

The former Culture secretary and Victoria Derbyshire's favourite, Jeremy Hunt who took less than a day to change his mind about changing his views on altering abortion laws.  Illegally claimed he’d never broken the law.   Would happily see the NHS privatised.

10/1


Rory Stewart (19  first round votes - eliminated - 3rd Vote)

Former diplomat, talks a load of foreign sounding languages, obviously very clever, vaguely reasonably sounding.  At any other point in time he’d make an excellent leader of the opposition and the Tories would be lucky to have/keep him.  Opium smoking, future leader of the Lib Dems.

50/1


Matthew Hancock (20 first round votes - quit)

Launching his leadership bid with a Brexit plan that has already been rebuffed and disavowed several times by the EU we have the current Health Secretary.

600/1


Mark Harper (10 first round votes - eliminated)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯   - here is his Wikipedia page, you'll have to decide for yourself, I'd not heard of him before.

2000/1


Esther McVey (9 first round votes - eliminated)

Announced her leadership with a photo of Thatcher on the podium and said that the cabinet should be packed with people committed to no deal Brexit, come what may.  Interrupted and denounced by a walking gammon who said her unpalatable hard Brexit plan wasn’t nearly Brexity enough before calling the assembled audience “fake news” and being escorted out.

20/1


Dominic Raab (27 first round votes - eliminated 2nd round)

The former Brexit Secretary who didn’t realise how much of our trade flows through the shortest, quickest route into Europe.  Thinks that British people are Lazy and that food bank users are just having cash flow problems.

Unthinkably 5/1


Chris Grayling (no votes)

He’s not nominated or running but given that he could fuck anything up, including not standing for election.

200/1


There we have it, expect a couple of weeks of gaffes, back stabbing and proclamations before it's over to 0.2% of the electorate to decide the next PM.


Update 12/06

Just to be really clear I don't think any of these people should be PM.  All of them have overseen and enabled horrible ideological austerity policies that have lead to 130,000 preventable deaths, 4 million children and 1.9 million pensioners living in poverty.  They are all culpable.  If the Government was a company they would be facing corporate manslaughter charges.

Aside:

I’ve made up a couple of words for this piece that would actually make good names for horses.  They are Enscandled and Non-sequiturially.  If you happen to own some racehorse, please feel free.


Photo Credit: Lauren Turner (licence)